In the latter stages of the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are mounting an incredible late push. As they say, it's always better late than never.
After dropping seven of their first eight games, RCB appeared doomed, but after winning four straight, they have surged back into postseason contention. They just defeated Punjab Kings (PBKS) on Thursday, April 9, officially eliminating PBKS from postseason contention.
What are RCB's prospects of making the playoffs, then? What must they accomplish to get to the final four?
An analysis of the RCB qualification scenario
Total points earned: 10
Delhi Capitals (H), Chennai Super Kings (H) are the remaining fixtures.
The most points they can score is 14.
Net run rate as of right now: +0.217
The simplest route for RCB to qualify for the postseason is as follows:
On the penultimate day of the group stages,
> RCB defeated CSK at Chinnaswamy.
> LSG lost at least one of their final two games, ideally against MI.
> CSK lost to GT & RR.
> RCB defeated DC at Chinnaswamy.
If everything said above occurs, RCB will have 14 points, DC & LSG will have either 12 or 14 points, and CSK will have 12 points.
Because they have a higher Net Run Rate, RCB will subsequently be eligible to finish as the fourth-place team.
What happens if CSK defeats GT or RR?
This scenario entails a three-way tie between RCB, CSK, and DC/LSG, with CSK certain to finish on 14 points. RCB must crush the Super Kings at Chinnaswamy and hope that Ruturaj Gaikwad's team loses badly in both of their final two games, as CSK presently has the greatest NRR of the three (+0.700). As an alternative, RCB can defeat CSK with their NRR by hitting DC hard at the Chinnaswamy.
What if CSK triumphed over both GT and RR?
When CSK reaches 16 points, RCB will be unable to catch up with them. When that happens, RCB will have to focus on SRH.
Since SRH now have 14 points, the only way RCB can finish higher than SRH is if Pat Cummins' team loses its next two games (against GT and PBKS) and RCB comfortably defeats both DC and CSK. Although RCB (+0.217) currently has a lower NRR than SRH (+0.406), the Sunrisers are still very much in reach.
RCB's net run rate (NRR) will surpass SRH's if they secure two impressive victories and a somewhat convincing loss for SRH.
To be clear, in this case, RCB will also want LSG to lose at least one of their final two games. If that takes place, SRH, LSG/DC, and RCB will all be in a three-way tie. If they are able to raise their NRR above SRH, they will advance.
What happens if one of the two games that RCB still has left is a draw?
Then, similar to PBKS and MI, they will go extinct. RCB will barely be able to make it with 13 points as three clubs are currently on 14, and the DC-LSG winner will also advance to 14.
If one of RCB’s remaining two games ends in a washout, then the only way they’ll be in contention is if DC- A washout also occurs in LSG. However, RCB will be eliminated if both RCB-DC and LSG-DC result in a washout because that will force DC, who are now on 12 points, to climb to 14 and beyond of RCB's reach.